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Adolescence – Philip Barantini (Netflix)
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Dying for Sex: “It’s Not That Serious” – Shannon Murphy (FX)
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The Penguin: “Cent’Anni” – Helen Shaver (HBO)
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The Penguin: “A Great or Little Thing” – Jennifer Getzinger (HBO)
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Sirens: “Exile” – Nicole Kassell (Netflix)
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Zero Day – Lesli Linka Glatter (Netflix)
What the Experts Predict:
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Variety says Adolescence is the frontrunner. Philip Barantini’s work is raw, kinetic, and unflinching — the kind of directing that makes a limited series feel like a two-hour film.
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Hollywood Reporter gives a strong shout to Zero Day (Lesli Linka Glatter), calling it the most “prestige Emmy bait” of the bunch: sleek, serious, and anchored by heavyweight performances.
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IndieWire notes Dying for Sex: “It’s Not That Serious” could be a surprise winner — Shannon Murphy turned a tricky mix of grief and comedy into something intimate and moving.
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Los Angeles Times points to The Penguin, with Helen Shaver (“Cent’Anni”) as the standout episode for blending operatic gangster drama with deeply personal stakes.
In summary:
The safe bet is Adolescence, but Zero Day and The Penguin have real shot-making power if voters want prestige or franchise scale.
My Prediction:
I think Adolescence (Philip Barantini) takes it. It’s just too explosive and unforgettable to ignore. The way he directs those long, chaotic scenes makes you feel like you’re trapped in the same storm as the characters.
If I Had the Vote:
I’d still go with Adolescence. Barantini doesn’t just tell the story, he throws you right inside it — the camera never lets you breathe, the pacing feels relentless, and the emotional payoff is brutal. For me, it’s the most daring and human directing job here.