-
Kathy Bates – Matlock as Madeline “Matty” Matlock / Madeline Kingston (CBS)
-
Sharon Horgan – Bad Sisters as Eva Garvey (Apple TV+)
-
Britt Lower – Severance as Helly R. (Apple TV+)
-
Bella Ramsey – The Last of Us as Ellie (HBO)
-
Keri Russell – The Diplomat as Katherine “Kate” Wyler (Netflix)
What the Experts Predict:
Los Angeles Times ranks Kathy Bates (Matlock) as the clear frontrunner, framing her comeback as Emmy royalty as “hard to beat.” Britt Lower (Severance) is positioned as her closest challenger, while Bella Ramsey (The Last of Us), Keri Russell (The Diplomat), and Sharon Horgan (Bad Sisters) are considered long shots.
Entertainment Weekly also puts Bates at the top, praising her commanding dual-role turn in Matlock and joking that everyone else is “competing to lose to THE Kathy Bates.” Lower’s work in Severance is again singled out as the most serious competition, with Ramsey’s performance getting recognition but not enough traction to top the race.
Vanity Fair notes that Bates’ legendary status and the nostalgia of her Matlock revival give her the edge. However, they stress that Severance’s critical acclaim and Emmy reach could propel Britt Lower forward if voters decide to embrace the darker, more modern performance.
In summary:
Kathy Bates is the overwhelming favourite, with Britt Lower standing as the only real threat
My Prediction:
I’m leaning toward Kathy Bates. The Emmys love a comeback.
If I Had the Vote:
I’d give it to Britt Lower. Her performance in Severance is both unsettling and vulnerable. She takes a strange role and turns it into something deeply human.