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Jon Bernthal – The Bear: “Napkins” as Michael Berzatto (FX)
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Bryan Cranston – The Studio: “CinemaCon” as Griffin Mill (Apple TV+)
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Dave Franco – The Studio: “CinemaCon” as himself (Apple TV+)
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Ron Howard – The Studio: “The Note” as himself (Apple TV+)
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Anthony Mackie – The Studio: “The Note” as himself (Apple TV+)
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Martin Scorsese – The Studio: “The Promotion” as himself (Apple TV+)
What the Experts Predict:
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Variety says Jon Bernthal (The Bear: “Napkins”) is the clear frontrunner. That flashback episode hit hard, and his performance as Michael gave the whole show its soul.
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Hollywood Reporter points to Bryan Cranston (The Studio: “CinemaCon”), saying his biting, meta turn as Griffin Mill is the kind of sharp cameo Emmy voters love to single out.
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IndieWire highlights Martin Scorsese (The Studio: “The Promotion”) — calling it surreal, hilarious, and exactly the sort of “big name, short role” that sometimes sways voters.
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Deadline mentions the “celebrity stunt casting” in The Studio (Dave Franco, Ron Howard, Anthony Mackie) is fun, but probably too light to win against the heavier turns from Bernthal or Cranston.
In summary:
It feels like Bernthal’s award to lose, with Cranston as the closest challenger.
My Prediction:
I’m leaning toward Jon Bernthal – The Bear. “Napkins” is basically his episode, and he makes every second count. It’s powerful, heartbreaking, and Emmy voters love when a guest star reshapes a whole show’s mythology.
If I Had the Vote:
I’d give it to Bryan Cranston. His Studio cameo as Griffin Mill was smart, funny and sharp in a way only Cranston could pull off. He turned what could’ve been a gimmick into something biting and memorable.