-
Colin Farrell – The Penguin as Oswald “Oz” Cobb / The Penguin (HBO)
-
Stephen Graham – Adolescence as Eddie Miller (Netflix)
-
Jake Gyllenhaal – Presumed Innocent as Rozat “Rusty” Sabich (Apple TV+)
-
Brian Tyree Henry – Dope Thief as Ray Driscoll (Apple TV+)
-
Cooper Koch – Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story as Erik Menendez (Netflix)
What the Experts Predict:
Los Angeles Times places Stephen Graham (Adolescence) as the frontrunner, praising his raw, uncompromising performance as “the heart and fire of the series.” Colin Farrell (The Penguin) is considered the closest challenger, with critics noting his total physical and psychological transformation. Jake Gyllenhaal (Presumed Innocent) sits in the third spot, admired for his tense and layered work but viewed as less likely to break through. Brian Tyree Henry (Dope Thief) earns critical respect but is seen as a long shot, while Cooper Koch (Monsters) is labeled the category’s surprise nominee, celebrated for a breakout turn but not expected to win.
Entertainment Weekly also ranks Graham first, highlighting how his searing performance in Adolescence has fueled the show’s awards dominance. Farrell’s Penguin transformation is described as “showy in all the right ways,” making him Graham’s top competition. Gyllenhaal is credited for carrying Presumed Innocent but isn’t viewed as a frontrunner.
Vanity Fair emphasizes that Graham has the momentum — his turn in Adolescence is being hailed as a career best. However, they stress that Farrell’s prestige, along with The Penguin’s massive Emmy haul, gives him a viable path to an upset. They note Gyllenhaal as respected but argue that this is largely a two-man race.
In summary:
Stephen Graham leads the field, with Colin Farrell as the only true challenger.
My Prediction:
I’m leaning toward Stephen Graham. His performance in Adolescence is devastating, electric, and impossible to ignore — exactly the kind of acting Emmy voters love to reward.
If I Had the Vote:
I’d give it to Stephen Graham. He doesn’t just play Eddie Miller; he lives him. It’s a raw, haunting performance that sticks with you long after the credits roll.