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Sterling K. Brown – Paradise as Xavier Collins (Hulu)
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Gary Oldman – Slow Horses as Jackson Lamb (Apple TV+)
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Pedro Pascal – The Last of Us as Joel Miller (HBO)
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Adam Scott – Severance as Mark Scout (Apple TV+)
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Noah Wyle – The Pitt as Dr. Michael “Robby” Robinavitch (HBO Max)
What the Experts Predict:
Los Angeles Times ranks Noah Wyle as the frontrunner, calling his return to Emmy contention after decades “unstoppable,” with Adam Scott (Severance) positioned as the main challenger. Sterling K. Brown, Pedro Pascal, and Gary Oldman are seen as long-shot contenders.
Entertainment Weekly also places Wyle at the top, noting that his layered, emotional performance has made The Pitt one of the most talked-about dramas of the season. Scott’s eerie, divided character work in Severance is viewed as his toughest competition.
Vanity Fair highlights how Wyle’s narrative as a comeback story gives him an edge but emphasizes that Severance’s industry-wide respect and massive nomination haul could tilt votes Scott’s way.
In summary:
Noah Wyle is the clear frontrunner, with Adam Scott close behind as the spoiler.
My Prediction:
I’m leaning toward Noah Wyle. His performance feels like a classic Emmy winner.
If I Had the Vote:
Yeah, it’s Noah Wyle. He makes The Pitt impossible to ignore. His work balances heartbreak and resilience, giving the show its emotional anchor. While Adam Scott’s haunting turn in Severance is extraordinary and absolutely deserving, Wyle’s comeback narrative combined with the sheer depth of his performance makes him my choice for the win.