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Cate Blanchett – Disclaimer as Catherine Ravenscroft (Apple TV+)
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Meghann Fahy – Sirens as Devon DeWitt (Netflix)
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Rashida Jones – Black Mirror: “Common People” as Amanda Waters (Netflix)
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Cristin Milioti – The Penguin as Sofia Falcone / Sofia Gigante / The Hangman (HBO)
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Michelle Williams – Dying for Sex as Molly Kochan (FX)
What the Experts Predict:
Los Angeles Times ranks Cate Blanchett (Disclaimer) as the frontrunner, Blanchett rarely misses when she’s nominated. Michelle Williams (Dying for Sex) is viewed as the strongest challenger, with critics highlighting the emotional depth she brings to the true-story adaptation. Cristin Milioti (The Penguin) is seen as the critical dark horse, praised for her sharp, unpredictable performance that cuts through the show’s heavy atmosphere. Meghann Fahy (Sirens) has momentum after her breakout on The White Lotus, but experts see her more as “next in line.” Rashida Jones (Black Mirror) is recognized for her striking work in Common People but isn’t expected to top the category.
Entertainment Weekly also places Blanchett at the top, noting that her prestige and star power make her difficult to beat. Williams is again singled out as her toughest rival, while Milioti gets attention as the kind of surprise nominee who could play spoiler if voters lean toward The Penguin.
Vanity Fair emphasizes Blanchett’s dominance in awards races but stresses that Williams’ heartbreaking portrayal in Dying for Sex could resonate deeply with voters looking for something more grounded. They frame it as primarily a Blanchett–Williams showdown, with Milioti lurking as the spoiler.
In summary:
Cate Blanchett is the clear frontrunner, Michelle Williams is her strongest competition, and Cristin Milioti is the outside threat. Fahy and Jones round out the field as respected but unlikely contenders.
My Prediction:
I’m leaning toward Cate Blanchett. She delivers a commanding performance in Disclaimer, the kind that feels tailor-made for Emmy recognition.
If I Had the Vote:
I’d give it to Cate Blanchett as well. It’s the kind of performance that pulls you in and never lets go.