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Javier Bardem – Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story as José Menendez (Netflix)
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Bill Camp – Presumed Innocent as Raymond Horgan (Apple TV+)
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Owen Cooper – Adolescence as Jamie Miller (Netflix)
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Rob Delaney – Dying for Sex as Neighbor Guy (FX)
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Peter Sarsgaard – Presumed Innocent as Tommy Motto (Apple TV+)
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Ashley Walters – Adolescence as DI Luke Bascombe (Netflix)
What the Experts Predict:
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Los Angeles Times sees Owen Cooper as the frontrunner, citing his raw, vulnerable performance in Adolescence that made the series such a critical hit.
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Entertainment Weekly agrees, but flags Peter Sarsgaard as a strong challenger, noting how voters often reward steady veterans in prestige courtroom dramas.
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Vanity Fair describes the race as “Cooper vs. the veterans,” highlighting Bardem’s powerhouse presence and Bill Camp’s scene-stealing turn, while admitting Cooper has the emotional role of the year.
In summary:
Cooper feels like the one to beat, a breakout performance that defines Adolescence. Still, Sarsgaard’s pedigree, Bardem’s gravitas, and Camp’s reliability make this a more competitive field than it first looks.
My Prediction:
I’m predicting Owen Cooper. His performance carried Adolescence, fragile, raw, and painfully human. It’s the kind of discovery Emmy voters love to reward.
If I Had the Vote:
I’d also give it to Owen Cooper. His work didn’t just support the series, it defined it. Every moment with him felt lived-in, and he turned a difficult role into something unforgettable.